Can I Retire Now?

You can retire when your portfolio covers the part of your spending that guaranteed income never will, plus the years before that income starts. Everything else in this calculator is a refinement of that sentence.

Most retirement rules of thumb were built for one of two people: the 35-year-old saver who will not see Social Security for three decades, or the 67-year-old who stops work and claims the same month. The reader in between, who is 58 or 61 and weighing whether to give notice, has a different problem. Social Security and perhaps a pension will cover a large share of spending, but not yet. The years between the last paycheck and the first benefit check, and between leaving an employer plan and Medicare at 65, have to be paid for in full from savings.

So the calculator splits the answer in two. The core is the spending gap after Social Security and pension, divided by a withdrawal rate. The bridge is the Social Security and pension income you forgo by retiring before each starts, plus health cover for each year before Medicare. The sum is your retirement number for that age. The projection then asks whether your portfolio, growing at your assumed return and topped up by whatever you are still saving, will reach it.

At a 4% withdrawal rate, each $1 of annual spending that guaranteed income does not cover needs $25 in the portfolio. At 3.5% it needs about $28.60. The table shows the core of the retirement number for common gaps. Note that the gap, not total spending, drives it: a couple spending $140,000 with $60,000 of Social Security and a $20,000 pension has a $60,000 gap, not a $140,000 one.

Taxes belong inside the spending figure. A household drawing mostly from a traditional IRA pays income tax on every withdrawal, so its gross spending need is higher than one drawing from Roth accounts or from taxable accounts with a high cost basis. If you are unsure, add your current federal and state income tax bill to spending as a first estimate.

For a 30-year retirement, a starting rate close to 4% has held up historically, and 3.5% is the cautious choice for 35 years or more. The 4% figure comes from William Bengen's 1994 study in the Journal of Financial Planning, which tested every 30-year period from 1926 using U.S. stock and bond returns, and from the 1998 Trinity Study by Cooley, Hubbard and Walz, which found success rates above 95% for balanced portfolios over 30 years.

Current research lands in the same place. Morningstar's 2026 estimate of the highest safe starting withdrawal rate is 3.9%, for inflation-adjusted spending over 30 years with a 90% probability of money remaining, using portfolios with 30% to 50% in stocks (Morningstar, 2026). Someone retiring at 62 and planning to 92 fits that horizon. Someone retiring at 56 does not, and should use 3.5% or build in the flexibility to cut spending after a bad year.

Two points are easy to miss. First, the rate applies to the long-run portfolio withdrawal, not to the bridge years. If you retire at 60 and claim Social Security at 67, you will draw 6%, 7% or more of the portfolio for several years, and that is fine if the bridge was funded separately, which is what the calculator's bridge line does. Second, the risk that matters most is the order of returns. A 25% decline in the first two years of retirement, while you are drawing heavily, does lasting damage that the same decline at 80 would not. Many retirees hold the bridge years in Treasury bills, CDs or short bond funds for exactly this reason.

Guaranteed income lowers the core of the number by 25 times its annual amount at a 4% rate, but every year you retire before it starts adds a year of that income to the bridge. $48,000 of Social Security removes $1.2 million from the core. Retiring five years before it begins puts $240,000 back as bridge.

For anyone born in 1960 or later, full retirement age is 67. Claiming at 62 reduces the benefit by 30% for life, and each year of delay past 67 adds 8% in delayed retirement credits, up to 70 (Social Security Administration). So the claiming age is a trade: an earlier claim shortens the bridge but shrinks the check that covers the rest of your life. Test both in the calculator by entering the benefit for each claiming age from your statement, and read our guide on when to claim Social Security before deciding.

A pension works the same way. If it starts the day you retire, it simply reduces the gap. If it starts at 65 and you stop at 60, five years of it go into the bridge. Check whether yours has a cost-of-living adjustment. The calculator treats every income source as keeping pace with inflation; a fixed pension loses about a quarter of its buying power over ten years of 3% inflation, so enter a lower figure if yours is fixed. If you are offered a lump sum instead, our guide to pension lump sum versus annuity works through that choice.

Every year you retire before 65 is a year of health cover you buy yourself, and it is often the second-largest bridge cost after Social Security. The usual routes are COBRA, which lets you keep your employer's plan at full cost, usually for up to 18 months after you leave (U.S. Department of Labor); a working spouse's plan; or a marketplace plan under the Affordable Care Act.

Marketplace premium tax credits are based on your household income for the year (HealthCare.gov). In early retirement you have unusual control over that income, because you choose how much to draw from pre-tax accounts, how much from cash and taxable accounts, and whether to realize gains or convert to Roth. The same years are often the best window for Roth conversions before RMDs, so the two decisions have to be made together.

Medicare's initial enrollment period runs for seven months, starting three months before the month you turn 65 (Medicare.gov). Missing it can mean a late-enrollment penalty for as long as you have Part B. Once on Medicare, premiums rise with income through IRMAA surcharges, which look back two years; our guide to Medicare enrollment and IRMAA explains the brackets.

The FIRE number, spending times 25, assumes the portfolio pays for everything forever, which overstates what you need once Social Security is a few years away. The idea came from the Financial Independence, Retire Early movement, whose savers are often in their thirties and plan decades of retirement before any government benefit. For them, ignoring Social Security is a reasonable safety margin.

For someone at 60 with $48,000 a year of Social Security due at 67, the same margin costs $1.2 million of extra savings that the plan does not need, which in practice means working several more years than necessary. The calculator still shows the classic FIRE number, so you can see the difference, but it bases its answer on the gap after guaranteed income plus a separately funded bridge.

Check the parts of the plan that a single projection cannot see: taxes, the order of withdrawals, and the risks that are expensive but uncertain.

• Withdrawal order. Which accounts you draw first changes lifetime taxes. See the retirement withdrawal order guide.
• Required minimum distributions. These start at 73, or 75 if you were born in 1960 or later. A large pre-tax balance can push you into a higher bracket in your seventies; the RMD Calculator shows by how much.
• Long-term care. Decide whether you will insure, self-fund or combine the two. Our long-term care planning guide sets out the options.
• A cash reserve. One to two years of portfolio withdrawals in cash or Treasury bills lets you avoid selling stocks after a fall.
• The house. If you plan to sell and move somewhere cheaper, the equity you free is a real addition to the portfolio; see downsizing in retirement.

Then run the plan through the Retirement Withdrawal Calculator, which varies returns year by year instead of assuming the average. If the plan survives a poor first decade there, you have a much firmer answer than any single projection can give.